Message 64 of 64

General Trading

I am new to eons (I just joined tonight!) and this is my first post.

All of my stock trading is done in my IRA. I began trading stocks after the company I worked for sold the manufacturing plant I worked in. This occured late in 2001. I rolled my entire 401(k) plan into an IRA and started a new 401(k) with my new company. The timming of this transition to an IRA account influenced my thinking on stock investing heavily. Observing how much stocks declined in value immediately after 9/11 would have scared me out of the market completely were it not for the rapid price rebound many stocks experienced afterwards. I don't think a buy and hold strategy is valid in the current investment climate and may not be for some time to come since valuations in stocks can rapidly decline in the aftermath of a major terrorist event. Such an event could occur again any time in the near future. I therefore think it is much safer to day trade or only hold a position for several days at most.

I only trade one stock at a time. I try to identify stocks which: (1) are at or near the bottom in a price cycle, (2) fluctuate by at least an average of 2% of their value daily and (3) have a trading volume average of at least 5 million shares per day.

My profit objective is 2.2% return per month. 2.2% is what I use because this compounds to 30% annually. In this I include any dividend payouts I may receive by holding a position more than a day or so and interest my assests accumulate while parked in a money market fund.

Since I only trade in my IRA, I cannot shortsell. I do not consider this a serious problem although I do feel if shortselling were available to me I could improve my return considerably.

In 2002 and 2003 my returns did not reach my 30% objective although I did make money (12% in 2002 and 19% in 2003). In 2004 I achieved 32% and in 2005, a wonderful return of 39%. This year is promissing to be a good one unless I make some serious blunders in the remaining trading days left.

Stocks I have used successfully this year are GM and ALCOA. December has been something of a tough month for GM with Kerkorian liquidating his enormous position, but I do anticipate a rebound before the end of the month to at least the low 30s along with improved volume and price volatility.

I would love to hear from others with different takes on the market and what strategies they employ.

I do consider myself a Contrarian in that the more popular a strategy may become, the less likely I am to use it.

Good Trading!!

happytobehere
happytobehere's profile
Howdy Happy!

I keep touting this guy like a broken record, but here I go again. I love Jim Cramer's Mad Money show on CNBC, shown nightly. I do not follow him to the "T", but he has made several great suggestions that have made me some money! His books have been a great help, and I like his wacky style and explanations. Good luck!

GROUCHO1's profile

over 3 years ago
Hello Eoners!,

If you are interested in learning more about technical analysis and receiving daily Stock Alerts with documented results we invite you to take a look at our website PendulumTrading.com. There is a three week free trial (no credit card required) to see if it is right for you.

Trade Well!

C. M. Dayton
Pendulum Trading, Managing Partner

stocktrader's profile

over 3 years ago
Popular wisdom would probably dictate a more conservative investment style; but, I feel I have had better results from the CANSLIM approach advanced by Bill O'Neil, founder of Investors Business Daily. Without burdening the boad with the Acronym, I am attracted to the "home run" pothential of stocks with a relatively small amount of shares outstanding. The common sense btween the faster mover of stock being a barge, MSFT, or a sail boat, BTJ, 5.3 million shares outstanding, is appealing to me. I know some investors view IBD followers of CANSLIM as a cult of robot investors. My primary focus is on the number of shares outstanding before making a stock pick from the U.S. markets' 5000 plus issues. If the shares outstanding I expand my research to quality of earnings, etc. The drill all of you of whatever approach follow. My question to the board: what sell rules you do employ? I use a strict 8% loss from my buy price to sell. And never average down. Or as the tv commentator calls it , "back up the truck." The average down approach is the one rule I never break. Is there general agreement to have your own personal set of rules and stick with them until demonstrated worthy of abandonment? Question: why does age mandate risk reduction in your stock investment decisions? Beyond the standard reponse: of insufficent time to recover from a major market collapse, etc? I know so little but I dont want to invest "old" just because it is the classic wisdom. I would just like to listen and learn about other views toward playing against the most worthy and cunning opponent: The Market. Thanks for your patience if I ask an elementary question.


over 3 years ago
As price moves on expectations, I focus on future earnings graph and look at the trend. In the case of biotech stocks, while there's always a risk, it's also good to look at phase 2/phase 3 in the pipeline and timings...

sansfrontiere's profile

over 3 years ago
Hello - I have been a day trader for nearly two years. I have pulled back lots since I felt my head would blow off my shoulders - I became so involved and attached to the screen. I made lots of bad decisions, like selling too low, but do you know what, everything came back and much more so, so now if a stock goes down, I do not sell it, and I do not get that pit in my stomach any longer, I do expect it will go up again. I have never used the 8% rule. I know it is recommended by IBD. I only hold the cream of the crop companies. I have started to look into technical analysis (charting) which I find very confusing, but slowly I will start using that as a technique for making my decisions. In many instances I find the analysts know nothing, and what they tell the public is pure guess work coming out of the top of their heads. When I trade now I use the trailing stop loss method. I find it very comforting. I would like to get involved in an investment club. Where are they? Anyone know? Signing off now. Happy Trading.


over 3 years ago
This is the first message I have posted to this ("Stocks") group, but I have posted several messages to the "Investing" Group, which you might like to check out, which include a long list of useful online investing sites.

bluesfan's profile

over 3 years ago
you seem to be on the right track. The mkt is now due for retracement. What to play? QID it goes up double the market fall back. Friday it crossed the 8SMA which is the buy indicator. Buy between 53.50-54 with stop loss at 52. add on the way up keeping tight trailing stop loss
Bob


over 3 years ago
good show on your returns! which platform do you use to trade and get your stock picks? I use IBD, Vectorvest and HGSI...and am on overload with stock recommendations! also, which charting tool do you use.......thanks
pam3434's profile

over 3 years ago