Hi, Nightree
Give you a short rundown on "29....the main reason that the Market Collapsed at that time was because there were not as many Stock holding up the Overall Market. Today there are thousands.
Even Bin Laden and his henceman were unable to bring it down after a 3 day closure and that was because of this fact. It's interesting to study the past, it always has some correlation to the present.
I don't really see a Total Market Failure any time soon. We have just gone through and are probably still in one of the worst times in US Financial History as the current media suggest. The Good News is it's getting better. As the song goes: Stop wishing for Bad Luck. ( John Prine ).
I find it much better to not follow the Stock Market Channel...for the most part they usually cover the stocks that Institutional Buyers are investor are trading. Really has nothing to do with the individual. Sometimes it interesting, other times it's not...most of the time it's confusing for the outside investor. Best to keep your mind clear on that matter. Less mind data you have to worry about later.
Your are right the SEC keeps pretty good house and are still weeding out the stinkers.
In 29 the Fed didn't pump money into the economy. Pretty much like Japan in the late 1980s during their real estate bust.
Galbraith makes the point in his book that scams of all sorts become visible when people get nervous and want their money where they can watch it. The con men can't paper up the books during an outflow. Amazing to find today that none of those spiffy trading statements Madoff sent to his investors meant anything. The trades never took place.
I use a screening program and my criteria are pretty generous. A current ratio => 1, LT debt < equity, pays a dividend, and a few others. My net hauls in very few fish. There's still quite a few stocks with PEs over 20 in a market for < 15.
My guess is we may see a rally between now and summer. But my bet is that we'll settle down into the mud before this is over. These severe markets usually end with a capitulation of all who held out with hope. One final frantic bit of selling. Sometime after that common sense kicks it and the buyers are back.
The worst case would be not just dragging in the mud but staying there for years. Look at 1974 through 1982.
I look for income from what I invest in. I might have a long wait.
